UFC 94 predictions

Tonight on the Sirius Fight Club (Sirius Channel 127) I'll be discussing the stacked UFC 94 show with Randy Gordon and Chris Thomas. Mike Goldberg and Marc Ratner are expected to call in from Las Vegas with analysis and weigh-in results, so be sure to check out what expects to be a fun program. Matt Serra was to join us in the studio, but I was told today he's under the weather.

Each of us will be asked for predictions and why. Here's a sneak preview of what I see happening tomorrow night:

Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn
Penn moving up in weight could cost him stamina wise, but he won’t go down without a fight. St. Pierre remains intensely focused and unflappable since his loss to Serra and (hype or not) dismisses Penn's silly comments on UFC Primetime. GSP via decision.

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
Another great bout between a machine (Machida) and a destruction device (Silva). Silva comes off a back injury, and Machida’s style is pure precision and frustrates the hell out of opponents. Machida in a decision.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
We'll see if Bonnar is hurt by being out of action for 15 months or if his training helps him not be affected by rust. Jones is hungry and dynamic, yet with a level enough head and humility to control his aggression and not make a big mistake against a veteran. Jones TKO in Round 2.

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
I don’t know much about Kim, though many people thought he didn’t deserve the unamious decision win over Matt Brown. Parisyan is extremely talented and fun to watch. His back is healthy and he’s determined to rebound from that loss to Thiago Alves. Parisyan TKO Round 1.

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida
Guida has the edge in experience, an incredible heart and is approaching his peak at age 27, whereas Diaz is still in the developmental stage. The Carpenter TKO in Round 1.

Jon Jones' quest

I asked a few in the MMA loop their thoughts on Jon Jones and his bout with Stephan Bonnar Saturday at UFC 94. They either never heard of him or only knew of him, and all wanted to know more about him, so I jumped at the chance to pen a feature on Jones for Junkie and learned he's extremely mature for a 21 year old, who is also a father and soon to be engaged.

Once Jones arrived in Las Vegas this week, he declined a room at the host MGM Grand, optiong to stay 10 minutes off the strip to avoid the myriad of distractions Sin City along throws at you. Bonnar has been out of action for a year, recovering from a serious injury and still rebuidling a reputation soiled when he tested positive for steriods after his second with with Forrest Griffin. Yet Jones' limited MMA experience has him listed as an underdog.

That's exactly how he wants it. This quote from Jones sums up what he's all about:

"The reality of this thing is I have 15 minutes to prove to everyone, and to myself, that I belong in the octagon. People tend to hype you up a lot and tell you you're going to be the next great thing. I don't need that. I need reality. Reality is I'm the underdog, and I need to come with everything."

Fan comments were plentiful and intelligent, which the many having Jones winning the fight. I concur. Jones takes a huge step up the ladder with a second-round TKO.

Never boring in Yankeeland

And it's not even February yet! The good news is the Yankees came to terms with Andy Pettitte on a one-year deal with incentives, which made too much sense. Even though this likely means more service time in Triple-A for Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, et. all, it's not such a bad thing.

The bad news is the firestorm caused by excerpts from Joe Torre's new book, “The Yankee Years.” My encounters with Torre as Yankees manager in 1997-98 and 2003-07 were nothing but positive. He never struck me as the vindictive type, which is why I was shocked to read some of the swings he took at the Steinbrenners, Alex Rodriguez and Brian Cashman.

These attacks at Torre's character are premature. The book must be read in full to make a fair judgment, but the fact remains that his name is on the cover and he authorized every passage from start to finish. Expect this to be the lead story once camps open for the Yankees and Dodgers in three weeks.

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Shameless plug No. 1: I have a feature on Anthony Johnson appearing in FIGHT! Magazine,,one of the top MMA publications in the business, in either the March, April or May. “Rumble” is one of the exciting and rising young stars in the UFC whose compiled his first two UFC wins in a combined 64 seconds, but too little people are talking about him. His next bout is against the rugged Luigi Fioravanti February 7 in Tampa.

Shameless plug No. 2: I'll be live and in studio Friday night on the “Sirius Fight Club” (Sirius Channel 127) talking Georges St. Pierre-B.J. Penn and other topics with hosts Randy Gordon and Chris Thomas beginning around 6 p.m. Randy is the former head of the New York State Athletic Commission and Chris is an MMA insider with connections everywhere in the industry.

The Hammer's Homecoming

Matt Hamill is fighting again. This time against Mark Munoz, a former NCAA Division I national champion undefeated in five MMA bouts. This time it's UFC 96 on March 7 - in his home state of Ohio. Hamill is a native of Loveland, 15 miles northeast of Cincinnati and 88 from Columbus, the host of the event. The last time the UFC invaded the Nationwide Arena was March 3, 2007. Hamill's reception equaled, if not exceeded, that of Rich Franklin and Randy Couture as he entered the Octagon en route to a first-round TKO of Rex Holman.

Hamill-Munoz is the lead preliminary bout on a card that features Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Keith Jardine as the main event, but there's no denying the buzz Hamill is already receiving and can expect to receive on March 7. The difference from his previous fights is that this is no longer a feel-good story about the deaf kid doing well. Hamill is 32 years old and fighting in the stacked light-heavyweight division. He's not at the point where he can take Rampage or Jardine, but an impressive win over Munoz will boost his confidence and his case for a title shot before it's too late. Armed with a new six-fight deal with the UFC, Hamill and his camp knows it's now or never.

"I'm very focused right now," Hamill told me yesterday. "My instincts are to destroy and eliminate anyone in my division and move on without any hesitation at all."

Holmes' mission statement going into Hamill's last fight was to destroy Reese Andy. It wasn't exactly a destruction and Hamill looked sluggish at times, but he pounded Andy into submission in the second round. Unlike the time when I wrote Matt Hamill: Raw, Holmes admitted that Hamill is some sort of zone - and it's scary.

"I've never seen him like this," Holmes said.

A reader said it best: "The guy needs a switch. He's tough as nails." Maybe Hamill has finally found it. The key is not turning it off and on like a radio. He shut it down against Rich Franklin and you saw what happened.

By the way, I have a bone to pick with a few other readers who think Hamill has peaked and needs to drop Holmes and enlist with a, um, reputable MMA camp. Members of Hamill's family have read similar sentiments in the past and take exception to it. As great as a Greg Jackson is - and he is one of the best - nobody knows or can communicate with Hamill as well as Holmes, who has been with him since Day 1. He pushed Hamill beyond brutality for the Andy fight in response to the Franklin loss and knows he's not yet at a level where he can hang with the top contenders - and keep in mind he was robbed against Michael Bisping.

Serra: Hughes is a &#$(!

Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes has been in the works for 13 months. The two finally collide May 23 in Las Vegas, and if you think the rivalry has lost some spark, think again.

Serra is a reporter's dream. He'll come right at you and say whatever's on his mind without any regard of the censors. He's also one of the more fun and friendly personalities you'd ever meet. But he'll have to take his game up at least five levels by May. Serra hasn't fought since last April and even though Hughes is past his prime, he's an MMA legend and has the same bad intentions going into UFC 98. Whether Hughes calls it a career after this fight, which he's hinted, the last thing he wants is a loss to Serra, period.

Then again, Serra is hell-bent to not see Hughes' hand raised in victory.

"Do you think he'd be a gracious winner?" Serra said. "I can't have that. I cannot – cannot – lose to this guy, and I know that."

Time heals all wounds?

It almost always does. In Matt Serra's case nothing can be further from the truth.

After more than 21 months of talking smack and healing from injuries — and 13 months since his last fight — Matt Serra is finally getting his shot at Matt Hughes May 23 at UFC 98 in Las Vegas. I finally caught up with Serra Friday night. His hatred for his former friend turned archrival hasn't waned during his time off. It's escalated.

“Let me go on the record. I can’t stand him. I don’t like him. There’s a lot of pride on the line here," Serra said.

He was only getting warmed up. Not mixing words, he didn't back down from what he told me last September, that he wanted to retire Hughes. Frankly speaking, Serra's goal is to "decapitate" him.

There will be much more on this next week on MMAJunkie.com. If you thought Quinton Jackson and Wanderlei Silva hated each other, whoa boy.

Finally, Serra vs. Hughes

Matt Serra finally has his grudge match and a chance to settle a vendetta that’s been boiling for more than 18 months since the taping of The Ultimate Fighter 6, Serra will get a shot at his hated rival, Matt Hughes at UFC 98 May 23 in Las Vegas. Serra texted me this morning to confirm the bout, which Hughes mentioned on his Web site on Friday, though at that time it was not 100 percent confirmed.

I'll be speaking with Serra over the next day or two. I'm willing to guess he's a tad excited to face someone he flat-out doesn't like, but it'll also be only his third fight April 7, 2007 when he shocked Georges St. Pierre. He suffered an elbow injury in the GSP rematch and a herniated disc while demonstrating a move to a student. It'll be interesting how responds after a 13-month layoff.

However, this will also be Hughes' first fight in 11 months since suffering serious knee injuries against Thiago Alves. He's dropped three of his last four fights and with his best days behind him stated he plans on retiring after settling his feud with Serra.

Meanwhile, Matt Hamill secured a new six-fight deal with the UFC and faces Mark Munoz at UFC 96 on March 7 in Columbus, Ohio, a city and state where he has a huge following. My MMAJunkie colleague John Morgan broke the story this past weekend, citing a source close to the Munoz camp.

Teixeira on the Mark

Mark Teixeira showed immediately why he may turn out to be the rare player worth the $180 million he'll make over eight years playing for the Yankees. Okay, NO player is worth that kind of money, but athletes sports executives live in an alternative universe where fans suspend disbelief and care that the ends justify the means.

Teixeira's credentials as a player says enough. Priceless is the intangible he's bringing to the Bronx: He is about a high-character of a player and a person you'd meet — and this was his first impression. Yankees manager Joe Girardi said it best, words I didn't use in my story yesterday but sums up Teixeira perfectly:

“Character speaks volumes,” Girardi said. “You’re going to go through some rough times and it’s how long you let those rough times last. Usually if you have the character and the work ethic he has, the struggles are shorter.”

Hate the Yankees all you want for their reckless spending, but remember that the salaries of Jason Giambi ($120 million), Carl Pavano ($40 million) and Bobby Abreu ($16 million) all came off the books. All they did was re-invest in their commitment to winning. It's not necessarily fair, but it's not illegal either.

In case you care, Pavano signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with performance incentives predicated on actually going to work, with the Indians. Why he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation I can't imagine. He's the type of guy you take a filer on and make him earn a spot and the respect of his teammates. There's still lots of good will to repaired, but that's now Cleveland's problem.

The stalemate between Andy Pettitte and the Yankees continues. Both sides have a point, but the Yankees need Pettitte back. This revamped rotation is still fragile and you'd rather see the young arms as insurance policies who'd benefit from more work at Triple-A. Besides, remember last season when Sidney Ponson was the fifth starter? Moral of the story, you can never, ever, have enough pitching.

The Pettitte Problem

The New York Times reported late Monday that Andy Pettitte rejected the Yankees' one-year, $10 million offer. As is the norm in Yankeeland, there will be a lot more to discuss besides Mark Teixeira joining the team.

Having Pettitte in the rotation helps the Yankees. He's no longer a front-line starter, but ideal for a No. 4 or 5. He led the team in innings pitched last season (204) despite a lingering shoulder injury that shut him down after September 21 and is the pefect mentor for not only the new faces, but the young kids either settled in the rotation (Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain) or looking to get over that hump (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves).

If Pettitte doesn't come back, Hughes, Kennedy and Aceves will each get long looks in Spring Training. You cannot give up on neither Hughes or Kennedy despite their combined 0-8 record in '08, and I still think Hughes will be a star once he fully blossoms. But you can never - ever - have enough pitching. Better to have viable fallback options instead of being forced to use a Sidney Ponson. Buffing rotation depth starts with finding a way to end the Pettitte stalemate.

I'm off to Yankee Stadium for Big Tex and will have more to report later this afternoon.

The Rangers puzzle

The Rangers begin the second half of the season tonight against the Penguins. As has been the norm the last few seasons, it's been very hard to put a finger on this team. One night they have the look of Cup contenders. The next you have them ticketed for a spring and summer full of golf. The way I see it, a dramatic makeover is in order by the trade deadline, which is wishful thinking with the NHL's salary cap. Even if Glen Sather does something, anything, to kick-start the woeful defense and embarrassing power play, that alone enhances the Rangers' postseason chances. Beyond that is the great unknown.

The Yankees will introduce Mark Teixeira at a 1 p.m. press conference tomorrow. It should be another big day at the old Yankee Stadium, which is refusing to go quietly.

Enter 2009

A new year is upon us. Happy New Year to everyone who has taken the time to check out this blog. Whether I'm directly on site or an armchair observer, you can read my takes on a potpurri of topics all year long. On to a few random thoughts to begin 2009:

UFC 92 last week was awesome. Every fight except on was spared a judges' decision. It was nice seeing Matt Hamill pick up a needed win. Although he looked sluggish, he showed he has a stand-up game, took out Reese Andy in two rounds and likely secured a new UFC deal. Many thanks to Matt, Duff Holmes, Mike Rich (Matt's stepfather), Ron Gross (Matt's collegiate coach) and Eben Kotsbar (writing and producing a movie based on Matt's early life and college years) for their insight. Of course, MMAJunkie.com and editor Dann Stupp deserve props. It was Dann's idea to compose a multi-part series and judging by reader reaction, we'll be doing another one in the near future. 

What's next for the Hammer? His people are targeting TUF 8 winner Ryan Bader, but I would suggest that Hamill would love another shot at Rich Franklin, who fights former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion Dan Henderson January 17 at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland.  Should Franklin-Hamill II come to pass, we'll find out if Hamill really learned his biggest and most painful lesson when his former sparring partner knocked him out in Round 3 of their first encounter: Check all traces of friendship at the cage.

I was 1-for-3 in the three main events. I was right about Rampage Jackson, whose left hook knocked Wanderlei Silva straight into 2010. I figured Forrest Griffin's tenacity and ability to take tremendous punishment would help him retain the light-heavyweight championship over Rashad Evans, but Sugar eliminated any doubt about his standing when his ground and pound finished Griffin in Round 2. Look for Evans and Jackson to clash for Sugar's newly-won title at some point in '09.

If Jackson's KO of Silva was the highlight of the night, the performance of the evening was Frank Mir's decimation of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Rumor has it Minotauro was suffering from a staph infection, but Mir shocked everyone - including himself - and validated his comeback from a horrible motorcycle accident to become the interim heavyweight champion. Minotauro may not have been himself, but nothing can take away from what was the best fight of Mir's career.

Mir also earned a rematch with heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. Contrary to public perception, Lesnar is a deserving champ. Before Mir's brilliant performance, Lesnar pumped life into the heavyweight division when he destroyed Heath Herring and proved his legitimacy by stopping the legendary Randy Couture. Lesnar has embraced the heel role against Mir, who will be the sentimental favorite to prove himself again, this time to show that his submission of Lesnar wasn't a product of a rookie mistake and good fortune. 

Love it or loathe it, the Yankees bagged Mark Teixeira, a player who offers everything they needed in the form of a potent bat to protect Alex Rodriguez, Gold Glove capability at first base not seen since Tino Martinez eight years ago, and a professional attitude - all at the young age of 28. Yes, the Yankees needed to address their pitching, but it was easy to forget how much their offense sagged in 2008. There are concerns about CC Sabathia (durability) and A.J. Burnett (staying off the DL, coming off an opt-out season), but that duo and Teixeira all have the cojones to handle New York and Yankeeland's immense expectations. As much as I'm against giving Burnett five years, he looks like a mature 31 years old and the polar opposite of his buddy, Carl Pavano. It's eerie how their careers mirror, but I don't think it can get any lower than the American Idle.